The biggest question facing Google and its future: are mobile ad revenues supplemental?

TechCrunch, as is its wont, breathlessly reposts some no name company's press release stating that US MOBILE AD REVENUES TO REACH $2.8 BILLION BY 2015!

Which, if you can get a nice piece of that, is pretty damn good. Or, is it?

The rest of the TechCrunch posts looks at how well iOS and Android are set up to capture those theoretical billions. Surprisingly, Apple's iOS is extremely competitive with Google's Android. Surprising given that Android is built by Google, an advertising company.

Of course, the post doesn't tell us how much of the impressions and clicks and ha pennies from these mobile ads, today, are flowing to Apple (via iAD), to Google, and to others. For now, let's just assume that 100% go to Google.

And that by 2015, Google will capture 100% of that $2.8 billion.

I've said this many times before but it bears repeating: that does not seem like a lot of money.

Google just brought in revenues of about $9 billion -- this recent quarter. That $2.8 billion in the year 2015, or, $700 million per quarter, is lunch money for Google. I mean, am I missing something?

Because, though Google is earning $9 billion a quarter now, and growing, by 2015 who will *not* have a smartphone? Who will not use a smartphone as their *primary* source of surfing, browising, posting, reading, reviewing, searching? The web and the way the world accesses it are transforming, quickly. There is *zero* guarantee that the $9 billion per quarter Google makes, from people seated at their desk, searching for static information on a "PC" will continue to deliver $9 billion a quartere come 2015.

And if not, Google can't live on no $700 million per quarter.

Perhaps they should be spending less time worrying about Facebook and more time worrying about the death of the PC?