Can Michael Arrington buy back TechCrunch for pennies on the dollar? Cause AOL is doomed.

According to the New York Times, AOL CEO, Tim Armstrong, "declared that 2011 would be 'the year we stop working on the turnaround and start working on the comeback,' saying the sales team had been built up to a point that 'will allow us to get to second-half growth in 2011.'”

Um, don't hold your breath.

Earlier today, the (shell of a) company reported an earnings decline of 26%. I know what you're thinking. AOL actually had revenues that *could* decline 26%. Over $2 billion, to tell you the truth. Yes, it's true. No, it won't last.  Even your aunt, the one who lives alone and has the VCR still flashing 12:00, will eventually look at their credit card statement and put a stop to that $10 monthly charge that goes to AOL. And it's your aunt, and all the great aunts just like her that are funding AOL. Everything else they got is pretty much shit. And I don't care what your volume is, shit don't generate a lot of revenues.

Just like dial-up is a business for a bygone era, so too is the business of 'owning' a lot of high-volume, niche/vertical/high-concept web content that a lot of people quickly scan each morning, then get up from their desks to go get a cup of coffee, and forget. No matter how fast AOL spends that dial-up money to buy Big Web or create WalMart-like volume on a snazzy platform that enables Little Personal Web, it's all the same business model. Aggregating eyeballs and selling them to advertisers.

But it's been done. Better. Earlier. And it's a business model that is being ripped apart by smartphones, real-time services, the mobile web and a thirst for actual real content, not crap. The AOL crash-and-burn has happened. Like a giant tire factory fire, it's gonna take a lot longer to put it out. But they are history. And anything they have that remains will be sold, for pennies on the dollar.