Is Motorola about to become the next to go all in on Windows Phone?
Reader iPHONED (original) points me to Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt's post today on the failure of Xoom and the possible implosion of Motorola.
Global Equities' Trip Chowdry estimates that Motorola (MOT) has sold somewhere between 15,000 and 120,000 Xoom tablets -- hardly a propitious start for a company he perceives as being on the ropes.
The successful launch of the iPhone on Verizon (VZ), he writes, has "taken the wind" out of Android's sails. The Google (GOOG) app store is "a disaster." Honeycomb, the operating system on which Motorola has hitched its wagon, is "incomplete," "unstable," has a "poor UI" and is basically "dead on arrival."
That's pretty much all you need to know, there. Fairly damning, no? At least with respect to Motorola, Xoom and possibly even Android Honeycomb.
I do have a few thoughts, of course:
- Motorola got off to an early lead, at least in the US, and sprang back to life on the strength of Android. However, they failed to brand "Motorola" as well as "Droid". And, frankly, they didn't stay competitive. They hitched themselves to Verizon, far beyond what I think they should have. They allowed HTC to build equivalent (possibly superior) Android devices. They don't have the reach or stamina of Samsung. They can't compete on price with the low-end. And, as I've said many many times before: Moto's Droids are essentially designed to compete with iPhone. And they are not as good.
- I can't help but believe that Moto doesn't feel betrayed by Google. The Android "ecosystem" that would most effectively allow Moto's Droid lineup to compete with iPhone/iOS isn't close to equivalent as Apple/iTunes/App Store.
- Only, the betrayal's much worse. As we know by now, Android is very deliberate in who gets first mover/first to market status. In smartphones, that can be HTC, Samsung; any competitor that can do just as well, likely far better, in selling product than Motorola.
- Then, of course, is Honeycomb. By nearly every single review I've read, it's not even AAA to Apple's major league. Moto spent a good deal of time and money on an Android tablet, Xoom, and it has bombed. How does Google respond? By effectively pulling Honeycomb off the market. Google may have a history of releasing "beta" software into the wild, but when you're building a hardware device around that, using your own money, that's a foolish gamble.
- Windows Phone: I'm not sure how effectively Motorola can compete not just worldwide but in the US as an Android handset maker. Why choose Droid over the latest, greatest HTC or Samsung (or possibly even Sony)? Might this drive Moto into the cruel waiting arms of Microsoft's King Ballmer?
- If so, where does that leave Nokia? Nokia desperately wants in on the US market. That is one of the reasons for becoming Microsoft's bitch, er, partner. Given the various platforms and handset makers, how many high-end Windows Phone makers do we need in America? I suspect most US consumers, if they were to choose Windows Phone, would gravitate toward the Motorola brand rather than the foreign Nokia brand.
Thoughts?