The smartphone wars begat the destruction of everything. Everything. By 2016. At which point, we begin a new world, new era; one so different that the people of 2016 will have difficulty comprehending life before...

For author William Gibson, the future was Japan.

Wrong!

For Neal Stephenson, the future was the metaverse. Considering that we are bringing the virtual into our reality rather than the reverse, this also is wrong.

The future is Brazil. Young, brown, bustling, growing, transforming, spreading, boisterous, crowded, violent, hyperconnected and increasingly wealthy. And the future starts in 2016. This is the year of the Olympic Games, held for the first time ever, in the "developing world"; Brazil. This is the year of the end of the potential second term of the transformative presidency of Barack Obama. This is the year of a billion plus smartphones and the demarcation of wealth creation and opportunity shifting from the old to the new. This is the year India rockets a man into space. This is the year, 2016, when all entitlement/non discretionary spending consumes nearly 90 cents of every US government dollar. This is the year I predict the following will happen (if not sooner);

Predictions for 2016:

Smart Social Mobile Web

• Autos will be sold primarily by retail price (no haggling) and 'airline' pricing (based on very short-term need). [29 Dec 2009]
• Tightly integrated voice + touch will guide our smartphones, which will guide most of our other devices. [Dec 2009]
• Google shares (2009 equivalent) will be at least $2,000/share. [20 Jan 2010]
• Facebook's market valuation will be higher than Google's. [8 July 2010]
• There will be more broadband mobile web subscribers than broadband (landline) subscribers -- and this number will be over 1 billion. [22 Jan 2010] (Updated to over 3 billion, 10 July 2010)
• A base model iPad with wireless connectivity will cost $79 US. [19 Feb 2010]
• You will enjoy 1Gps wireless data service on your smartphone -- via the standard 'mobile/cellular' network service provider. [23 March 2010]
• A video shot and edited entirely on a smartphone will earn at least $16 million in revenues. [2 June 2010]
• Insurance companies will provide subsidized smartphones provided users videotape (real-time) their driving and incentivize claimaints if they have video of the incident. In addition, insurance companies will offer free storage to homeowners who want to upload a video record of their home's contents. [12 August 2010]

Free is the New Black

• One of America's most popular 'television' channels will show only commercials from the archives of broadcast networks. [1 Jan 2010]
• The only major metropolitan area in the United States with a printed daily newspaper will be New York. [11 Jan 2010]
• Microsoft will give away Office and (the equivalent of) Windows. [31 May 2010]
• Android will be the leading smartphone OS in the world. It will have a market share of no more than 45%. [7 September 2010]

Young Brown Woman Child

• Within a decade an additional 1.8 billion people will become middle class. The definition of middle class will be the equivalent of what, in 2009, residents in the US considered non-union blue collar workers. [2009]
• Baby Boomers will demand the legalization of human growth hormone and like drugs that promote a healthier appearance, potentially longer life, more muscle, better looks. In turn, they will not care if marijuana, ecstasy and other 'soft' illegal drugs are made legal and/or acceptable. [8 Jan 2010]
• Two of the 10 richest cities in the world will be located in Brazil. [9 Jan 2010]
• The elected President of the United States will be a woman. [6 April 2010] And she will be the second to last white (non-Hispanic) President of the United States. [15 June 2010]

Think Locally Scale Globally

• Film reviews of major films will be film-length and incorporate at least 2D versions of the reviewed film's 3D screens. This will be normal, legal and embraced by movie studios. There will be similarly integrated reviews of 'television' shows, songs and other popular art forms. [24 Dec 2009]
• By 2016, worldwide monthly mobile data usage will be at least 7 exabytes, or 7 billion gigabytes. [24 March 2010]
• Facebook will reside within at lest 3 billion connected devices. [23 August 2010]

Information wants to be Monetized

• Paid apps for free services (e.g. Twitter, Facebook; not iPhone) will be at least a $50 billion market. [14 Jan 2010]
• You will not pay for any content you do not want; thus, no more cable television. [28 March 2010]
• Facebook will have a market cap equal or greater than Microsoft's. [2 June 2010]
• Apple will control a majority share of digital book and music publishing and be the largest retailer of video publishing in the world. Amazon will continue to sell digital content but it will be a minor focus. [12 June 2010]

Values = Profits

• Numerous lucrative businesses will be supported by purging (permanently) specific, ranges or all of your digital activities. There will be similar businesses that allow you to essentially disappear from all non-human communications for specific time periods. [23 Dec 2009]
• Gambling will drive over $1 trillion in global revenues annually, *not* counting traditional sporting events or government sanctioned lotteries or casinos. [23 Dec 2009]
• 3D films/television still won't matter much. [8 Jan 2010]
• it will be commonplace for families to have family dinner time via webcam. This will be available to extended families as well. In addition, chartiable organizations like the Christian Children's Fund, which currently send letters on behalf of children they aid, will leverage this technology so that 'semi-adopted' children from places, such as Haiti, can 'join' in the family meal. [8 March 2010]
• You will own (or at least regularly drive) an electric car. [11 April 2010]

The Smartphone is the Computer

• There will be more than 1 billion smartphones in circulation by 2016 (with minimally the same function set as the 2009 iPhone 3GS). [7 Jan 2010]
• There will be at least 5 billion smartphones in use by 2020. [24 Aug 2010]
• Apple becomes the world's first trillion-dollar publicly traded company (by market cap). [26 March 2010]
• Steve Jobs will not be CEO (or chairman) of Apple [1 April 2010]
• At least 500 million Android OS-based smartphones will be in global circulation; at least 250 million iPhones (or equivalent). [1 April 2010]
• Music recorded and mixed exclusively on a smartphone will regularly be among the most popular (on iTunes, in television and film soundtracks, commercials and similar platforms). [7 June 2010]
• Smartphones the equivalent of 2010's iPhone 4 will be free. [13 June 2010]

The Spice Must Flow! 

• States totaling a population of at least 50 million will default on their obligations. [23 Dec 2009]
• America's fast-food industry will become one of the largest private funders of education. [28 Dec 2009]
• The US gross debt will be equal to 150% of the US GDP. [8 Jan 2010]
• An increasing number of US states and European governments will establish various fees, fines and certificates which are solely based on the person's income and/or wealth. [8 Jan 2010]
• At least one major candidate for President of at least one (of the two) major political parties will take the public position that America should 'cancel' its debt to China. [6 Feb 2010]
• There will be at least 1/3 fewer nations in the 'EuroZone' as in 2010. [28 April 2010]
• At least 3 'Western' nations will cancel their debts to foreign entities. [7 May 2010]

The Future is Evenly Distributed 

• In 2016, Brazil will be energy independent; the USA will be more energy dependent on other countries than at any other time in its history.
• Most of America's Top 25 public universities will have "diversity" policies that promote easier enrollment criteria for white students and males.
• The average price of a new car in the US will be under $20,000. [24 Dec 2009]

The Virtual is the Real

• Payments on virtual goods will total at least $1 trillion US. [12 Jan 2009]
• The mobile web will serve up 1 trillion videos per month. [24 June 2010]