Smartphone numbers of the week

So many bombs dropped in August and early September that this week seems quiet by comparison. Perhaps. But, the smartphone wars continues. PCs reached a billion or so install base, then connected us via the (wired) Internet. That made for a massive, global market. The smartphone will be *significantly* larger; in the multiple trillions of dollars, minimum. 

Billions will have a smartphone and they will *always* be connected. From a dollars perspective, there may be no historical market large enough to help us frame our comprehension of how the smartphone will impact the global economy. A few numbers, just from this week, might help.

42,000

Giant US-based home improvement retailer, Lowes, will put 42,000 iPhones into the hands of its staff to provide better service, better information and faster check-out. The smartphone is the cash register. And the knowledgeable associate. 

6,000,000,000

We learned this week that there are now 6 billion mobile phone connections in the world. If you think about all the activated mobile devices a person may have linked with a carrier, an iPhone and a Galaxy Tab on contract, say, and the use of multiple SIMs by some users, particularly in Asia, and redundancy, then what? Five billion? Four billion? It is nonetheless true that already most of the planet is connected, with Asia and Africa already as large as the US and South America. Before this decade is out, given the spread of WiFi, 3G and other forms of mobile broadband, and reductions in costs of both devices and access, what should we assume for the number of active smartphone users? 2 billion? 3 billion?

Most of the world, always connected, with equivalent access to the very same platforms, social networks and interactive data resources. Can you think of anything more likely to completely remake our world in such a short time then the smartphone?

5.5

For at least the second time this year, Gartner reduced its forecast for PC sales in 2011. In their previous estimate, Gartner expected a 9.3% increase in PC *shipments* over 2010. Now they have lowered this to 3.8%. I'm willing to bet more than that number have a PC that died, but will never be replaced. Or, that have abandoned their PC or simply left it alone, gathering dust, now that they have a smartphone and/or a tablet.

6,473,006

That is the number of the US patent that Google recently bought at auction then sold to HTC, below cost, so they could sue Apple. No matter how duplicitous you know Google to be, you can't argue with their determination to any thing they can to spread Android, kill off Apple and obliterate those who profit more than they on any scrap of information.

50 million

That is the number of Yelp users. Typically, users download the Yelp app. Then search that app for its very robust, useful and location-specific restaurant listings and recommendations. That is a model that prevents Google from making more off that information then Yelp. That makes it a threat to Google. Not surprisingly, Google has now purchased Zagat with the intention of killing off Yelp. Expect Google's closed algorithms to very soon become an off-putting alchemy that magically places at the top of the page, or front and center of any Google Map, the restaurant that uses Google Places and Google Deals and (has even just one) Google Zagat review, whenever you search on Google Android. When I was but a lad, all the rebels, the hippies, the smart ones that were certain that they, ousiders all, were living right and were knowers of the truth and would mock and beseech their fellow Americans over media consolidation and the power of the tv networks, and the closing off of the mind, now, in an ironic twist of fate -- always the best kind -- priase Google for being "open" and "standards based". They are stupid.

$5

Google Android is the biggest smartphone ecosystem on the planet, and Apple iOS the best. Not surprisingly, media focus is on these two combatants, particularly in the patent battles of the smartphone wars. Meanwhile, Microsoft keeps rolling along, extracting a toll on nearly every single Android phone now being made. This week they signed licensing deals with Android makers Acer and ViewSonic. Terms were not disclosed though many assume it is about $5 per device, same as HTC tithes to them.

150,000

Everyone (excepting me) believes there will be an iPhone 5 in September. Hand to God. Unless it is launched in October. Apple be praised. If so, the Apple rumor mill, which Apple feeds and nourishes and strokes as well and as lovingly as Dr Evil does his hairless pussy, Mr Bigglesworth, is oddly quiet. Not to worry, fanboys. Digitimes this week reported that Foxconn is pumping out 150,000 iPhone 5s a day. Coming to a store near you. 

40,500,000

iPhone 5 or no, PED takes a look at the upcoming quarter and suggests Apple will sell a combined total of about 40.5 million high-end, high-margin devices, including iPhones (25 million), iPads (10.5 million) and Macs (5 million). Each one purchased, no doubt, by some sucker, easily fooled by clever marketing and desperate to show how cool they are. By following the crowd.

Document 397

Courtesy of FOSS Patents, this is the numbered document in the ongoing, bitter, time consuming and nearing vicious lawsuit between Oracle and Google. The Google-internal document states what we all already know: "Be the sheppards [sic] of the standard we created." "Do not develop in the open." "Give early access to the partners who build and distribute to our specifications."  "Set the rules. Define developer monetization opportunity." Like I said, I'm not sure there's anything more about Google that I can say that they have not already shown. You can get a number of great Android devices. If that's what you want, great. Some, not great, are very inexpensive. Some, near-great, are readily available and highly competitive. But don't talk about "closed" Apple or walled gardens or Microsoft's evil "embrace and extend" strategy. You'll just embarrass yourself.  

$3.2 billion

We learned this week that the concensus 2011 revenue estimate for Facebook, which continues to grow around the world, is $3.2 billion. Which is awesome. Less awesome is the fact that the company still doesn't make a penny off mobile. Possibly the most popular smartphone app in the world and they have yet to monetize their mobile presence. For now, mobile simply ties back into the PC version of Facebook, feeding its growth. This is not sustainable. The world is going mobile; in billions of cases, strictly mobile. This is a major Facebook weakess. One that creates an obvious opening, not just for Google.  

475 million

This is the number of smartphones that Tomi Ahonen expects to be sold in 2011. At worst, his number will still be damn close to reality.