Smartphone as a Service

OMG! APPLE IS MOVING TO THE CLOUD!

Yep. Just like the rest of the planet. And all of us.

We are approaching 6 *billion* mobile phone (connections) in service. Hundreds of millions of smartphones -- and this market is growing fast. In Africa, there are now more mobile phone connections (547 million) than in Western Europe (524 million). Surprising none of us, there are unique challenges and opportunities in Africa:

Given the continent’s limited Internet infrastructure, mobile phones have increasingly become the entry point for high-speed data, thus providing a fast growing market. Currently, Opera’s mobile web browser is the most popular on the continent accounting for more than half of Africa’s mobile Internet market. And from December 2009 to December 2010, the company reports that in the top 10 African countries using its browser, page views increased by 365%, unique users increased by 176% and data transferred increased by 331%.

According to Karel Pienaar, Managing Director of MTN South Africa, “for many consumers, their first Internet experience is via a mobile handset and this is the next revenue frontier for African markets.” Given Africa’s infrastructural challenges, apps are being touted as the one of the continent’s potential solution providers in areas such as healthcare, agriculture and banking. Mobile apps such as iCow, a voice based app that helps farmers effectively manage the breeding period of cows by monitoring the fertility cycle of animals and which won the inaugural Apps 4 Africa contest, are increasingly being seen as sources of economic development innovation. According to the app’s Founder, Kahumbu Stephanou, “Mobile phones are literally going to be the bridge between the digital world and developing countries. It’s not going to be laptops. It’s not going to be computers,” she said. 

In China,

China Mobile announced a robust performance for the quarter to 31 March 2011, a period in which its customer base passed the 600 million mark. 

All around the world, everyone, or very close to it, has or soon will have a mobile phone. And it is the mobile phone that is becoming their first, their only, and as it is for the rest of us, our primary means of connecting with the Internet.

The mobile is remaking how we connect and communicate and work and play. Inciting my curiousity. How will the mobile will remake the Internet?

Will the Internet itself become an app? I do not mean to suggest metered usage and billing, for example. Rather, is the very structure of the Internet going to be fundamentally altered? Each feature, function or service: voice, data, transacation, financial, video, book, game, usage, location, machine-to-group, etc., all supported on-the-fly, anywhere, paid for...how, exactly?

The Internet was "invented" in America. The rise of the Internet has been led by developed, Western nations, led by the US, by those who speak English, and by American companies. These include Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, Facebook, Apple, Youtube.

No, these are not the only companies. No, not everyone conducts their business via the Internet in English. But, the structure, the infrastructure design, the leading companies, and thus likely the sensibilities and cultural priorities are more a reflection of the US than anywhere else.

Is this about to undergo a swift, global and transformational change? That few seem to be talking about? Or appreciating how this might also alter national economies? Is giving away Android, for example, to China and India, say, a long-term boon to humanity, or a betrayal of America?

The rapid rise of the mobile phone, and its progeny, the smartphone, are altering how, where, why and how often we interact with the Internet. And I am curious how this may alter the Internet. For example, we talk of retail websites that need to create a site optimized for mobile. But that's minor. What might be the big shifts?

Are the concepts of metered billing/usage or "unlimited" usage about to become irrelevant? Consider the rise of Android. Google gives away the OS (at their discretion) to deliver more ads to each of us. Will this metaphor spread to all aspects of the Internet? Might our voice plan be subsidized by ads? Can we have free data, wherever we go, provided we allow the entity, a store say, capture our contact information or serve us an ad? This could become the primary means of paying for our voice and data services. In a world where pennies matter, most would probably choose this bargain.

Could the opposite happen? As all content is digitalized, broken down into IP chunks, as the vast majority of Internet 'requests' are made by mobile devices, it may become extremely difficult for the current primary monetization schema -- presenting ads -- to survive. Only, users won't or can't pay for each bit of 'content' they request. Will this lead to a series of structural changes whereby we are continuously (if automatically) handing over our personal data (who we are, who we are with, what we are doing, where we are, how we feel) in exchange for each successive chunk of content?

If we can't offer our attention for advertising, and we refuse to hand over personal information, will we pay for each interaction with the Internet by sending a few pennies to a series of service providers? Is there something else we can give? Maybe we become the node for advertising or promotion. When we reach out to friends on Facebook, say, in return for that 9 minutes of Youtube video, wee 'recommend' our friends visit a particular site, or try a new shampoo. And if so, can the structure of the Internet be altered such that it knows that I, say, should get much more money for making that recommendation than someone else?

Might the app model itself become the metaphor for the Internet? That is, will 10 minutes of voice calling be an app, for example? There is no voice plan, no voice contract or service. Just different modes of connecting: with persons, data, machines, groups, physical locations.

Could the pipes supporting the Internet retain enough intelligence and leverage that with pricing and buyer data, say, to continuously make sales offers to me in exchange for personal info? Your location? That's $1 off. Info on your top 5 Facebook contacts? $10 off the list price. Just want to have a phone call with your mother? Fine, you pay $0.003 per 20 seconds of connectivity.

I will need my morning coffee and have to research this. But I do know that most of the world is not like us. And most of the world outnumbers us by billions. And they are all going online. And going online primarily via a small mobile device. 

There is simply no way that the Internet as it was designed, and as we have come to know it and use it, will not be fundamentally altered by this new reality.